Swan CEO Cory Klippsten has provided historical context to Bitcoin's recent price decline, asserting that the drop from its all-time high (ATH) of $126,000 to around $60,000—a 52% drawdown—ranks as only the 9th-largest crash in Bitcoin's history. He shared a list detailing the most severe corrections, with the top three being the 94% crash from $32 to $2 in 2011, the 87% fall from $1,160 to $152 between 2013-2015, and the 84% drop from $19,600 to $3,100 in the 2017-2018 cycle.
Despite this historical perspective, analysts warn the current downturn may not be over. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has predicted Bitcoin could still fall to as low as $42,000, based on past bear market cycles. Meanwhile, analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed to a capitulation candle on Bitcoin's weekly chart, suggesting significant buying pressure that helped fuel a rebound above $70,000. He believes the $65,000-$70,000 range could form a bottom area, with a potential rally to $85,000 on the cards.
Adding to the uncertainty, a detailed analytical model from May 2025 by trader KillaXBT has resurfaced, suggesting Bitcoin has not yet established a macro bottom. The model, which accurately foresaw the recent correction, uses rotational market mathematics to map cycles from accumulation to distribution. It indicates that after failing to hold above the $115,000-$120,000 distribution zone, Bitcoin entered a lower consolidation band around $70,000. The framework's final projection points to a potential capitulation move toward the $50,000 area before a true bottom is formed, arguing that current relief rallies lack the impulsive strength needed for a reversal.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $71,000, up over 2% in 24 hours, as the market grapples with these conflicting signals about the depth and duration of the correction.
