Wall Street brokerage firm Bernstein has reaffirmed its year-end 2026 price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin, describing the current market downturn as the "weakest bitcoin bear case in history." In a note, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argued that the recent price drawdown reflects a "self-imposed crisis of confidence" rather than any structural damage to the Bitcoin ecosystem. They pointed to the absence of typical bear-market catalysts like major failures, hidden leverage, or systemic breakdowns.
The firm cited institutional adoption, spot ETF infrastructure, and improving liquidity conditions as key pillars supporting its bullish outlook. Bernstein also pushed back against concerns about Bitcoin's relevance in an AI-driven future, stating that blockchains and programmable wallets are well-positioned for an emerging "agentic economy." Furthermore, the analysts downplayed quantum computing risks as a unique threat to Bitcoin, noting that all critical digital systems will transition to quantum-resistant standards collectively.
In a related development, MicroStrategy purchased an additional 1,142 BTC for approximately $90 million, at an average price of $78,815 per coin. This acquisition, funded through at-the-market sales of the company's stock, brings MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin holdings to 714,644 BTC. Despite this, the total value of its treasury, at about $49.2 billion, remains below its total cost basis of roughly $54.4 billion, implying paper losses of around $5 billion. Company executives and analysts have stated that balance sheet risks are remote, with Bitcoin needing to fall to around $8,000 for several years before debt servicing becomes a serious issue.
Market sentiment indicators hit extreme lows, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sinking to a reading of 6 over the weekend, one of its lowest levels on record. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin's daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 15, a level only seen during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, suggesting deeply oversold conditions. Data also showed over $5.45 billion in short liquidations positioned above current prices, which could fuel a short squeeze if prices rise.
Signs of selective U.S. buying interest emerged as the Coinbase Premium Index improved from -0.22% to -0.05% during the selloff. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining difficulty recorded its largest drop since 2021, indicating stress in the sector as some less efficient miners temporarily shut down operations.
