According to an on-chain report from CryptoQuant, Ethereum (ETH) has entered a rare condition where its spot price has fallen below the Realized Price of whales holding at least 100,000 ETH. This cohort represents entities with roughly $200 million or more in exposure at current prices. The data shows Ethereum's price recently moved below this realized cost basis, which currently stands near $2,075, marking a significant shift in large-holder positioning.
The realized price reflects the average on-chain acquisition cost for this whale group, calculated based on when coins were last moved. When ETH trades above this level, these large holders are, on average, in profit. The recent dip below it indicates they are now temporarily holding unrealized losses. Historically, this level has acted as a cycle-level reference point rather than a short-term trading signal.
The chart provided in the report highlights a stark historical parallel: the last comparable occurrence was in September 2018, following that cycle's all-time high. On that occasion, Ethereum traded below the realized price of ≥100k ETH whales for approximately six months. This comparison underscores the rarity of the current setup, suggesting that post-ATH periods where price falls below the largest holders' cost basis have historically aligned with extended consolidation or drawdown phases.
From a structural standpoint, this condition implies that mega-whales are under cost-basis pressure, which typically reflects broader market stress rather than isolated volatility. These entities usually operate with long time horizons and strong balance sheets. Notably, the whale realized price itself continues to trend upward over the long term, indicating this cohort has consistently accumulated ETH at progressively higher prices across market cycles.
The CryptoQuant report frames the current zone as one where the risk–reward profile becomes more favorable for long-term, incremental accumulation strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging. This assessment is based on historical behavior around these whale realized price levels, not short-term price expectations. The key takeaway is that Ethereum trading below this threshold is a rare post-ATH signal that has historically coincided with important transitional periods in its market cycle.
