According to on-chain data from Glassnode, XRP has entered a critical phase where the aggregate profitability of its holders has turned negative, triggering visible panic selling across the network. The key metric, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) smoothed with a 30-day exponential moving average, has plunged sharply from 1.16 to 0.96. This decisive move below the neutral 1.0 level indicates that a majority of coins being spent on-chain are now being sold at a loss, confirming that XRP's price has fallen below the aggregate holder cost basis.
This shift marks a structural change in market behavior, moving from profit-taking to forced or emotional selling. Historically, when SOPR trends below 1 for a sustained period, it reflects capitulation-like conditions where holders are willing to realize losses to exit their positions. The current setup closely mirrors the prolonged consolidation phase from September 2021 to May 2022, where SOPR repeatedly failed to hold above 1 and the price remained range-bound in a period characterized by distribution and weak upside momentum.
Analysts interpret the rapid drop in SOPR as a sign that bullish positioning has been invalidated, shifting holder psychology from patience to risk reduction. From a structural perspective, this condition often leads to range-bound or grinding price action, as the market requires time to absorb the sell pressure and establish a new cost basis before any sustained recovery can begin. While this does not define a market bottom on its own, historical precedent suggests that sustained recoveries usually only begin after SOPR stabilizes and consistently reclaims the 1.0 level, signaling that selling pressure has been exhausted.
