Goldman Sachs Asset Management has issued a stark warning that a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could derail the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, posing a significant risk to rate-sensitive assets including Bitcoin and major altcoins. Analyst Kay Haigh stated that while the bank's base case still assumes "room for two more rate cuts" in 2025, a strong CPI print could "tilt the Federal Reserve towards a more hawkish stance." This shift would directly impact risk assets, which have been pricing in a smoother easing cycle.
Haigh emphasized that despite some cooling in the labor market, the economy's continued outperformance means the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) focus is shifting back to inflation. This macro backdrop is already influencing crypto markets, which Haigh describes as "a leveraged bet on the Fed's reaction function." Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading choppily around $66,700-$68,600, Ethereum (ETH) near $1,946, XRP at $1.37, and Solana (SOL) around $81.52, with all showing recent declines as markets recalibrate expectations.
In a separate but related development, Goldman Sachs revealed in its Q4 2025 holdings report a massive $2.1 billion institutional bet on the two leading cryptocurrencies. The filing shows the bank holds approximately $1.1 billion in Bitcoin and $1 billion in Ethereum through spot crypto Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), a near-equal allocation that surprised many industry observers. This represents about 0.33% of Goldman's total portfolio. The bank also disclosed smaller holdings of $153 million in XRP and $108 million in Solana.
This institutional move coincides with a resurgence in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which saw $616 million in net inflows over February 9 and 10, snapping a weeks-long streak of outflows. Total net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now crossed $55 billion since launch, with Assets Under Management (AUM) nearing $97 billion. In contrast, spot Ethereum ETFs have seen more modest activity, with a $57 million inflow on February 9 but net outflows since their launch.
The news underscores Goldman Sachs's deepening involvement in the digital asset space, both as a major investor and a policy influencer. CEO David Solomon is scheduled to speak at the World Liberty Financial Forum, and the firm recently attended a White House meeting on stablecoin regulation on February 10.
