The native token of the Hyperliquid decentralized exchange (DEX), HYPE, has declined sharply, shedding 18% of its value over the past week after hitting a yearly high of $38. The token has now fallen below the $30 mark, trading around $30.15, with analysts warning of potential further losses toward the $27 or even $21 support levels if bearish conditions persist.
Market data presents a conflicting picture. Derivatives metrics show a bearish long-to-short ratio of 0.91, indicating more traders are betting on a price drop. However, the funding rate has turned positive to 0.0033%, suggesting a bullish bias where long positions are paying shorts—a historical precursor to sharp rallies for HYPE.
Despite the price slump, Hyperliquid is demonstrating significant growth in a key area. On-chain analytics from Artemis reveal that Hyperliquid's notional trading volume for 2025 reached $2.6 trillion, nearly double the $1.4 trillion processed by Coinbase. This positions the decentralized perpetual futures exchange as a dominant force, with its open interest hitting a record $790 million in late January.
Whale activity signals high conviction. On February 10, 2026, a whale deposited 12.88 million USDC into Hyperliquid and used it to open a massive 20x leveraged long position on Ethereum (ETH) perpetual futures, controlling a position worth approximately $33.38 million. This move underscores the platform's appeal to high-stakes, speculative traders.
Technically, HYPE is trading below its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $30.77. A failure to close above this level could trigger a drop toward $26.85. Momentum indicators like the RSI at 37 and a bearish MACD crossover support the short-term negative outlook. A break above the $30.77 EMA, however, could fuel a rally toward the $36.51 resistance.
A potential catalyst for future growth is the prospect of a Hyperliquid ETF. In October 2025, 21Shares filed an S-1 application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Hyperliquid ETF, which previously sparked a 40% weekly rally for the HYPE token.
