The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, at 13:30 GMT. The report, postponed from its original date due to a partial government shutdown, is highly anticipated by financial markets for fresh insights into the labor market and the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path.
Economists forecast a rise of 70,000 jobs for January, following a 50,000 increase recorded in December. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.4%, while annual wage inflation, measured by Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to soften to 3.6% from 3.8%. TD Securities analysts offer a more conservative forecast, expecting job gains of just 45,000, with private sector strength concentrated in healthcare and construction.
The data carries significant weight for monetary policy. The CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates markets are currently pricing in only about a 15% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut in March. A weaker-than-expected report, with NFP below 30,000 and a rising Unemployment Rate, could pressure the US Dollar and increase expectations for earlier Fed rate cuts. Conversely, a figure at or above the 70,000 consensus would likely reaffirm the Fed's current policy hold.
Analysts highlight that wage growth will be a critical component. Danske Bank notes that softer wage growth could negatively impact consumer spending and strengthen the case for dovish Fed action, citing cooling indicators like the JOLTs Job Openings falling to 6.5 million in December.
Federal Reserve officials, including Governors Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson, have recently described the labor market as stabilized and "approximately in balance," characterizing it as a "low-hire, low-fire" environment. The upcoming data will test this assessment and directly influence the central bank's approach to its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
