Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy, declared that the cryptocurrency market's phase of "wild speculation" is ending, signaling a broader structural shift towards institutional maturity. Speaking at a New York event on February 10, Novogratz framed crypto as a narrative-driven asset class, stating, "Crypto revolves around narratives; it’s all about the stories." He acknowledged the difficulty in rebuilding momentum when participants leave but expressed confidence in a more lasting outcome emerging from the current decline.
The recent market downturn has been severe and puzzling. Bitcoin's price has fallen over 21% this year, hitting a 16-month low of $60,062 last week—nearly 50% down from its October 2025 high. Novogratz contrasted this with the clear catalyst of the FTX collapse in November 2022, noting that this time, "there’s no smoking gun." He highlighted a catastrophic event in October 2025 where $19.37 billion was liquidated from leveraged positions in 24 hours, shocking 1.6 million traders and marking the largest single-day loss in crypto history, which he said created substantial downward pressure.
Echoing this sentiment, Bullish CEO Tom Farley, in a separate CNBC interview, argued that institutional investors are far more insulated from volatility than retail traders, whom he described as exposed to leverage and "to some extent a little bit of gambling." Farley noted that while retail crypto volumes have fallen sharply through 2025, institutional inflows have trended upward since October, with banks and asset managers building on-chain businesses.
Both executives point to a market bifurcation. Farley laid out a framework separating the market into four buckets: Bitcoin; highly leveraged speculative assets; utility projects like stablecoins, Uniswap, Solana, and Ethereum; and the incoming tokenization wave. He emphasized Bitcoin's permanence and noted that stablecoin balances have held or gained market share even as overall participation dropped, calling them "dead solid."
Looking forward, Novogratz believes crypto systems will "either evolve or be replaced" to offer global financial services, with a trend toward diminished returns on real-world assets. Farley pointed to the tokenization of US equities and money market funds as proof the trend is real, predicting it will be a "20-year wave" with more assets tokenized in 2026. Bullish, which holds 24,000-25,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, exemplifies the institutional focus, prioritizing low fees and liquidity over retail marketing.
