Prominent figures in the crypto investment space are cautioning that the current market downturn may not be over, despite historical cycle patterns remaining intact. Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, and Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, have both outlined forecasts that anticipate further near-term pressure on Bitcoin before a potential recovery, while highlighting a possible divergence for utility-focused assets like XRP.
Steven McClurg's Two-Phase Outlook
McClurg, in interviews with CNBC and Korea Economic Daily, described 2026 as the "bear leg" of the classic four-year crypto cycle rather than a structural collapse. He expects Bitcoin to face continued macro pressure through mid-2026, with a potential bottom forming in the summer months. He attributes this weakness to inflationary pressures, constrained risk appetite, and restrictive Federal Reserve policy. As of February 11, Bitcoin was trading near $67,000 amid "Extreme Fear" sentiment.
Despite the near-term caution, McClurg maintains the halving cycle thesis is intact. He anticipates a strong bull market beginning later in the year, potentially extending into 2027, once macro conditions stabilize and liquidity improves.
Divergence Thesis for XRP and Solana
McClurg expressed stronger relative conviction in XRP, suggesting 2026 could mark the beginning of a phase where assets begin to decouple from Bitcoin's price cycle. He pointed to growing infrastructure development on the XRP Ledger and its positioning for real-world transactions and tokenized assets. He believes assets like XRP and Solana may start trading more on utility-based fundamentals. XRP was trading near $1.90 at the time of his comments. Reflecting this view, Canary Capital has reportedly increased its focus on XRP exposure.
Michael Terpin's Warning of Deeper Lows
Echoing the theme of ongoing pain, Michael Terpin was skeptical of recent optimistic bottom calls at $80,000 or $60,000. Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, he suggested Bitcoin could revisit levels in the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before a durable bottom is formed. He argued the market is unfolding exactly as historical patterns suggest, noting the bull market after the last halving lasted 11 months before popping, closely mirroring the 2021-2022 cycle timeline.
Common Thread: The Halving Cycle
Both analysts anchor their views on Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle. Terpin emphasized its role in creating a built-in supply shock that reinforces Bitcoin's scarcity. They interpret the current environment not as a cycle breakdown, but as a typical mid-cycle correction or reset year, setting the stage for a future expansion phase dependent on macro stabilization and liquidity conditions.
