At the Consensus Hong Kong conference, Markus Thielen, CEO of 10X Research, presented a detailed technical analysis of Bitcoin's recent price action, declaring that a significant source of selling pressure has technically ended. Thielen traced the current market dynamics back to Bitcoin's rapid rally from $70,000 to $90,000 in the 10-12 days following the November 2024 elections, which he noted occurred on "extremely weak trading volume." This created a substantial liquidity gap in the market.
According to Thielen, when Bitcoin's price later fell to the $87,000 level, it filled this gap and triggered the formation of a strong negative gamma in the options market around the $75,000 strike price. In a negative gamma environment, market makers are forced to continuously hedge their risk by selling in the futures market, which amplifies selling pressure and accelerates price declines. Thielen argued that this negative gamma shock was fully absorbed when Bitcoin reached the $60,000 level, at which point market makers completed their hedging. "Once the last market makers completed the hedging operation, a reversal became possible," he stated, identifying this as a critical equilibrium point for market structure.
This analysis arrives as the market braces for the expiry of $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin options on February 13th. Data from Deribit shows a put/call ratio of 0.72, indicating more call (bullish) contracts than puts. The max pain price—where the most options expire worthless—is set at $74,000. With Bitcoin trading around $68,280 at press time, nearly $6,000 below this level, traders are watching to see if expiry-related hedging activity pulls the price upward or if bearish momentum persists.
The technical backdrop remains weak. Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its October all-time high of $126,080 and trades below key moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a deeply oversold 29, though without confirmed bullish divergence. Support is seen at $65,000-$66,000, with $74,000-$76,000 identified as a crucial resistance zone that must be reclaimed to signal a potential trend reversal.
