After more than 12 months of sustained decline, recent market data suggests the altcoin market may be showing early signs of bottoming relative to Bitcoin. According to analysis, the 'Others Dominance' chart, which tracks altcoin performance against Bitcoin, is beginning to display recovery signals. This metric has already reclaimed levels seen prior to the October 10 crash, which liquidated $19.3 billion, while Bitcoin remains approximately 42% below its highs from that same period.
This divergence is notable. While Bitcoin continues to trade below prior structural levels, altcoins are stabilizing on a relative basis and beginning to regain strength versus BTC. Historically, continued altcoin distribution leads to falling dominance, but that is not the current case. Instead, Others Dominance has risen roughly 17% over the past two months, suggesting the forced selling phase may be nearing exhaustion.
Analysts point to a historical parallel from the 2019–2020 period. After quantitative easing ended, Bitcoin corrected for several more months, but Others Dominance bottomed and never revisited those lows, even during the March 2020 crash. That period laid the foundation for a multi-year altcoin uptrend. While history doesn't guarantee repetition, the current relative strength behavior mirrors early-cycle stabilization.
Several broader technical and macro signals are aligning with this shift. The RSI on Others Dominance has crossed above its moving average for the first time since July 2023, a crossover that has historically preceded phases of altcoin strength. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 index breaking to new highs, a rising ISM index, a five-year low in core inflation, and cooling rallies in gold and silver all suggest a potential rotation into risk-oriented assets like altcoins.
Separate analysis highlights a recurring 120-day downtrend cycle in the altcoin market since 2024. The Total3 index, which tracks altcoin market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has shown a pattern of sharp rallies followed by extended corrections lasting roughly four months. The market appears to move in structured phases: rally, distribution, slow decline, and reset. Total3 has now returned to a key support range with its RSI near historical lows, which some view as a sign of selling fatigue.
From a structural standpoint, the altcoin market appears reset, with most coins down 80–90% from cycle highs, leverage flushed, and sentiment at multi-year lows. However, analysts caution that patience is required, as midterm election years historically introduce volatility, and a scenario of sideways accumulation through Q3 or Q4 before a decisive reversal cannot be ruled out. The key observation is the emerging relative strength of altcoins versus Bitcoin, which often marks the early stage of a broader market rotation.
