Bitcoin's dramatic plunge to approximately $60,000 in February 2026 represented a significant capitulation event, but on-chain analysis reveals this was not a single moment of panic. According to a report from Checkonchain, the market experienced two distinct waves of seller surrender—one in November 2025 and another in February 2026—each involving different cohorts of investors.
The February sell-off was characterized by massive realized losses. Data shows short-term holders realized losses of about $1.14 billion in a single day, while long-term holders took a hit of approximately $225 million the same day. During the peak of the flush, the net realized loss rate reached around $1.5 billion per day. Both the November and February events individually exceeded $2 billion per day in realized losses, marking them as separate capitulation events.
The first capitulation in November 2025 occurred when Bitcoin fell to about $80,000. This event was dominated by the "class of 2025"—investors who had acquired coins during that year and surrendered after enduring nearly a year of sideways, disappointing price action. This was characterized as capitulation by exhaustion, where time pain became price pain.
The second capitulation in February 2026 had a different emotional signature. The seller map shifted to a roughly even split between the class of 2025 and the class of 2026. The newer 2026 buyers were those who had purchased in the $80,000 to $98,000 range, believing they were buying a bottom, only to capitulate when prices fell further. The remaining 2025 cohort sold because they regretted not exiting at $80,000 and decided to cut losses at $60,000. The report calls the February spike the largest realized loss event in Bitcoin's history in absolute dollar terms.
The capitulation was accompanied by surging volume across all trading venues. Aggregate spot volume reached about $15.4 billion per day, while ETF weekly trade volume hit an all-time high of approximately $45.6 billion. Futures volume jumped to over $107 billion per day from about $62 billion, and options volume doubled since January to around $12 billion per day.
The analysis frames market bottoms as a process rather than a single price point. Key reference levels include the network's realized price (average cost basis) at around $55,000 and the true market mean at approximately $79,400. The February low also approached the psychologically significant 200-week moving average, a level historically respected during bear markets.
This two-act capitulation cleared out both exhausted long-term holders and overconfident dip-buyers, potentially setting the stage for a new phase of market digestion and slower rebuilding of risk appetite.
