A significant divergence in Bitcoin market sentiment is emerging, with U.S. institutional investors maintaining bullish positions while offshore traders retreat. This gap is most evident in futures markets, where the premium for long positions on the CME—favored by U.S. hedge funds and institutions—remains higher than on offshore platforms like Deribit. Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, noted that the "widening spread between CME and Deribit basis functions as a real-time gauge of geographical risk appetite," with the offshore drop suggesting reduced appetite for leveraged longs.
The debate intensified following warnings from venture capitalist Nic Carter on the Bits and Bips podcast. Carter argued that major institutional asset managers, such as BlackRock, which now holds 761,801 BTC (worth approximately $50.15 billion and representing 3.62% of total supply), could intervene in Bitcoin's development if quantum-resistant cryptographic upgrades are not implemented promptly. He suggested large holders might "fire the devs and put in new devs" if security concerns persist, highlighting tensions between Bitcoin's decentralized ethos and growing corporate ownership.
Industry leaders are deeply divided on the urgency of the quantum threat. Figures like Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments view it as an existential risk requiring immediate action. In contrast, Blockstream's Adam Back and MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor believe practical quantum attacks are decades away. CoinShares' Christopher Bendiksen provided context, noting that only about 10,230 Bitcoin with exposed public keys are currently at direct risk.
Market performance has added fuel to the discussion. Bitcoin recently fell to $60,000 before rebounding to around $70,281, down 26.25% over the past month. Some attributed the sell-off to quantum fears, but NYDIG analysis disputes this, showing Bitcoin's price has moved in tandem with quantum computing stocks like IONQ and D-Wave Quantum, indicating a broader decline in risk appetite for future-driven assets rather than a crypto-specific panic.
