Wall Street analysts have sharply reduced their price targets for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) following the company's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, which revealed a miss on adjusted EBITDA and significantly weaker-than-expected guidance for the first quarter of 2026. The crypto exchange's stock has fallen 37.61% year-to-date, reflecting investor concerns.
Piper Sandler delivered the most severe downgrade, slashing its price target from $270 to $150 while maintaining a neutral rating. This drastic cut was prompted by Coinbase's Q1 2026 subscription and services revenue guidance of $550–630 million, whose midpoint is 27% below Wall Street consensus. Piper Sandler consequently reduced its 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates to $1.42 and $2.59, down from $2.54 and $3.07, respectively.
Benchmark also reduced its target, albeit less severely, from $421 to $267, while maintaining a buy rating. Analyst Mark Palmer lowered his full-year 2026 EPS estimate by 21% to $5.34. Benchmark framed the adjustment as a "maturity milestone," arguing the price target reduction reflects broader compression in crypto equity multiples after the October 2025 market crash and softer trading volumes, not a deterioration in Coinbase's operational trajectory.
Coinbase's Q4 2025 results presented a mixed picture. Total net revenue of $1.71 billion beat estimates by 3%, but adjusted EBITDA of $566 million missed expectations. On a GAAP basis, the company swung to a net loss of $667 million, driven by a $718 million unrealized loss on its crypto portfolio and $395 million in strategic investment losses. Transaction revenue fell 6% sequentially to $983 million, aligning with an 11% drop in total crypto market cap.
A significant shift in the company's revenue mix was a key highlight. Subscription and services revenue reached $727.4 million in Q4, constituting 43% of total net revenue—a major increase from roughly 25% two years ago. For the full year 2025, this category hit $2.8 billion, up 23% year-over-year. Institutional transaction revenue jumped 37% sequentially to $185 million, largely fueled by the first full quarter of contributions from the acquired crypto options exchange Deribit.
Despite the earnings pressure, Coinbase maintains a strong balance sheet. The company ended 2025 with $11.3 billion in cash, repurchased $1.7 billion in stock during Q4 and early February, and its board authorized an additional $2 billion in buybacks. Management also guided to flat expenses for Q1 2026.
Other analyst reactions were mixed. Bernstein reiterated an outperform rating with a $440 target, while Canaccord cut its target to $300 from $400 but kept a buy rating. The divergent views reflect a debate on whether Coinbase's current weakness stems from temporary market headwinds or deeper structural issues.
