Bitcoin derivatives markets are showing a significant increase in speculative activity as traders pile into leveraged positions despite the cryptocurrency's prolonged sideways trading pattern. Since February 6, Bitcoin has been confined to a range between $62,000 and $71,000, with the price currently hovering around $68,300 to $68,600 after a 2.5% decline over the past 24 hours.
The annualized three-month futures basis on major centralized exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Deribit has widened from approximately 1.5% to 4% since February 13, according to Velo data. This metric, which measures the gap between derivatives and spot prices, indicates futures are trading at a premium to spot—a clear signal that speculative appetite is returning and traders are willing to pay extra for long exposure. This is further supported by rising aggregated funding rates after February 13, showing long-position speculators are becoming more dominant.
Total Bitcoin futures open interest across exchanges stands at 639,780 BTC, valued at $43.81 billion, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange leading at 118,450 BTC ($8.11 billion) followed by Binance at 110,770 BTC ($7.58 billion). Options markets reveal a mixed but leaning-bullish sentiment: 56.21% of open interest is in calls versus 43.79% in puts, with notable bullish bets including a December 25 call at $120,000 strike (5,930 BTC) and a March 27 call at $90,000 (5,665 BTC). The 25 Delta skew—a measure of demand for puts versus calls—has improved from -10 to -4 since February 13, indicating reduced demand for downside protection.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reported on Sunday that retail users have shown resilience, with data indicating they've been "buying the dip" and that "the vast majority of customers had native unit balances in February equal to or greater than their balances in December."
Market analysts express both optimism and caution about the leverage buildup. Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, told Decrypt that "the increase in retail activity signals growing speculation and leverage buildup that frequently comes before volatile crypto movements." He expects "short-term potential for a leverage-driven rally and short squeezes, especially if broader risk assets hold steady," but warned that "retail typically enters late and suffers the most on unwinds."
Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Tiger Research, highlighted the disconnect between sentiment and volume, noting that positive sentiment "has yet to be supported by sufficient trading volume." He warned this "creates a high-risk environment where any sudden downside could lead to a final, mass surrender of interest" and that "another forced liquidation could extinguish remaining hope entirely, leading to a total exodus from the market."
Technical analysis shows Bitcoin failed to hold above $70,000 and broke a bullish trend line with support at $69,500 on the hourly chart. Immediate resistance sits near $68,800 with key resistance at $69,500. A close above $69,500 could push prices toward $70,000 and potentially $72,000, while a breakdown below $67,000 would invalidate the current bullish setup.
