Prominent crypto analysts are issuing cautious forecasts for Bitcoin, suggesting the market has not yet reached a definitive bottom and that prices could see further declines before a potential recovery. Portfolio manager Knox Ridley and analyst Crypto Rover have both presented detailed assessments pointing to key support zones and macroeconomic headwinds.
Knox Ridley's Technical and Psychological Outlook
Portfolio manager Knox Ridley, who accurately called the start of the bull cycle in December 2022 from the $16,000 level, has shifted his stance. After issuing multiple buy signals between $25,000 and $60,000, Ridley changed strategy in October 2024 when market euphoria peaked with calls for prices above $200,000. He cited a significant increase in risk and issued nine separate sell signals in the $95,000 to $113,000 range.
Ridley now argues that market psychology is becoming the dominant factor, with the risk of a new bear cycle strengthening. His base scenario involves a strong Bitcoin rebound towards the $84,000–$107,000 range. However, he warns that before this rise, the price could make a final limited pullback towards the $50,000 region. A strong signal that a bottom has been reached would be a sustained move above $72,500. Any rise below $107,000 would be considered a "bear market rally," and a weak, volatile move could increase the risk of a final decline towards $40,000-$30,000 in the coming months. Ridley believes the bear cycle may not even be halfway complete at the current stage.
Crypto Rover's Macro and On-Chain Analysis
Analyst Crypto Rover supports the view that a final bottom is not yet in, focusing on negative U.S. liquidity growth as the primary driver. He notes that year-over-year liquidity growth remains negative, meaning capital is leaving the system, which historically leads crypto assets to sell off before other markets. He links this environment to rising corporate bankruptcies and consumer debt defaults, stressing that Federal Reserve liquidity remains insufficient for a sustained reversal.
On-chain metrics also suggest more downside. The Mayer Multiple, a key valuation metric, currently stands near 0.67, whereas historical cycle bottoms have occurred when it dropped below 0.6. The long-term holder realized price, reflecting the average acquisition cost of long-term holders, sits around $41,000—a level Bitcoin has bottomed near in past cycles. Mining electrical costs, estimated near $57,500, could fall 15-20% during bear markets, implying a floor near $45,000.
From a technical perspective, Rover identifies $45,000 to $50,000 as a major demand zone, noting that ETF approvals and the August 2024 crash bottom formed there. He estimates the final bottom could form between August and September, given the current market structure and liquidity trends.
