Bitcoin's price action remains volatile and indecisive, caught between emerging bullish technical signals and significant macroeconomic headwinds. The asset failed to sustain momentum above the critical $70,000 psychological level and has retreated, currently trading near $68,400.
On the technical front, a notable bullish divergence has formed on the daily chart. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been recording higher lows while the price itself has been setting lower lows since mid-January, a classic precursor to a potential trend reversal or relief rally. Further supporting this, the MACD line has crossed above its signal line, another indicator of building bullish momentum.
However, price action tells a different short-term story. BTC faced rejection after a rebound from the $65,000 support zone last Thursday, failing to break the $71,000 resistance for the second time in a week. On the hourly chart, the BTC/USD pair broke below a key bullish trend line with support at $69,500 and is now testing levels near the 100-hour simple moving average. Immediate support is seen at $68,000, with major support at $66,500. A break below $68,000 could see a test of $67,350. Conversely, resistance lies at $68,800, $69,500, and the crucial $70,000-$71,000 zone.
The market is also grappling with significant liquidation pressure. In the past 24 hours, the broader crypto market saw nearly $300 million in liquidated positions, with Bitcoin alone accounting for over $75 million. This persistent selling pressure from leveraged positions is keeping a lid on price appreciation.
All eyes are now on a series of key macroeconomic events this week that could dictate Bitcoin's next major trend. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its January meeting on Wednesday, February 18th, offering critical insight into the central bank's monetary policy stance. Additionally, a speech by Fed Governor Michael S. Barr and the release of U.S. Q4 GDP and core PCE inflation data on Friday are expected to act as major market catalysts. These data points will provide the structural clarity on the Fed's path for monetary easing in 2026, a fundamental driver for risk assets like Bitcoin.
