The cryptocurrency derivatives market is exhibiting severe indifference, with Bitcoin futures premiums collapsing and total open interest experiencing its steepest decline in nearly three years, signaling a dramatic reduction in speculative appetite.
David Lawant, a prominent market analyst, highlighted the CME Bitcoin basis—the difference between futures and spot prices—as a key indicator of institutional demand for leverage. In a post on X, Lawant noted that the "carry" trade has virtually disappeared, with the constant-maturity basis compressing across the curve to levels not seen since October 2023. "Where's the carry? CME BTC basis is a great gauge for market apathy rn," he wrote.
Data from CoinGlass reveals a staggering 55% drop in Bitcoin's total open interest, falling from an all-time high above $94 billion in October 2025 to roughly $44 billion currently. This represents the most significant drawdown since April 2023. Declining open interest typically indicates traders are cutting leverage and withdrawing from speculative positions.
Analysts describe the current sentiment as "worse than panic." The market is showing less demand for upside leverage than during previous chaotic events like the "Liberation Day flush" of April 2025 and the "German/JPY unwind" of mid-2024. This suggests a transition from fear to deep apathy, where investors are neither panic-selling nor actively buying.
Experts attribute this risk-off mood to multiple catalysts, including a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical conflicts, instability in the Japanese bond market, and perceived risks from AI transformation to traditional tech models. Following a hotter-than-expected U.S. jobs report in January, which added 130,000 jobs and dampened expectations for near-term rate cuts, large-scale institutional selling became pronounced.
A brief rally above $70,000 over the weekend, triggered by a cooler-than-expected January CPI reading of 2.4% year-over-year, was primarily driven by spot buying and short covering. Funding rates turned negative and open interest fell further, confirming the move was not fueled by new leveraged bets but by the unwinding of short positions.
Despite Bitcoin retracing its entire post-Trump-election ascent and struggling to maintain a foothold above $70,000, some analysts see cautious optimism. Aurelie Barthere, principal analyst at Nansen Research, suggested that for long-term believers in favorable crypto regulation, current levels might be acceptable for "patient, cautious dollar-cost averaging."
