BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom managing partner Arthur Hayes has issued a stark warning, framing Bitcoin's recent price divergence from tech stocks as a "fire alarm" for an impending AI-driven credit crisis. In a blog post published on February 17, Hayes argues that this divergence signals a looming "massive credit destruction event" that will force central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, to restart aggressive money printing.
Hayes's core thesis hinges on the economic fallout from widespread AI adoption. He points to data showing companies cited AI for 55,000 job cuts in 2025, a more than twelvefold increase from two years prior. Hayes warns that job losses among "white-collar knowledge workers"—a group he estimates at 72.1 million in the U.S.—will severely impact consumer credit and mortgage repayments, leading to massive bank losses.
His model projects catastrophic losses for the banking sector. Assuming a 20% reduction in knowledge-worker jobs, Hayes estimates U.S. banks would face approximately $330 billion in consumer credit losses and $227 billion in mortgage losses, totaling around $557 billion. This would represent a 13% write-down of total U.S. commercial bank equity. He predicts weaker regional banks would buckle first, potentially triggering a crisis reminiscent of early 2023.
Hayes anticipates a delayed and politically constrained Federal Reserve response, citing internal tensions and a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell by the Trump administration. However, he believes the Fed will eventually "panic" and be forced to print money to bail out the banking system once credit markets seize.
This expected surge in fiat liquidity is the central bullish catalyst for crypto in Hayes's view. He states that the "future expectation of increased fiat creation to save the banking system" will "propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high" and "pump Bitcoin decisively off its lows." Beyond Bitcoin, Hayes revealed that his firm, Maelstrom, plans to deploy capital into two specific altcoins once the Fed acts: Zcash (ZEC) and Hyperliquid (HYPE). He has previously suggested HYPE could reach $150 by July following such an event.
