BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has outlined a bullish thesis for the cryptocurrency market, predicting a major rally fueled by an estimated $572 billion liquidity injection from U.S. Treasury operations. Hayes argues that a synchronized drawdown of the Treasury General Account (TGA) and ongoing debt buybacks will effectively flood the financial system with cash, creating a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Hayes calculates that the TGA balance, currently near $750 billion, is targeted to drop to around $450 billion, releasing approximately $301 billion. Combined with Treasury bond buyback programs estimated to inject another $271 billion per year, the total net liquidity boost could reach $572 billion before year-end. He describes this as "stealth stimulus" or "monetary morphine," where liquidity is injected even without formal Federal Reserve easing, potentially offsetting quantitative tightening effects.
The investor believes this liquidity shift means "the worst of the downturn is already behind us" for crypto. He ties Bitcoin's historical price movements to global liquidity conditions, suggesting that expanding dollar supply creates upward pressure on scarce assets. Hayes sees this setup as potentially triggering a fast squeeze, with Bitcoin possibly surging toward all-time highs, even $100,000.
In a separate but related prediction, Hayes shared an ambitious target for the HYPE token, suggesting it could reach $150 by July—approximately five times its current price. He warned of impending risks in global markets, noting the recent weakening correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index, which he views as an "alarm for global fiat currency liquidity" that could signal a major credit crunch.
Hayes also expressed concerns about artificial intelligence potentially leaving 20% of white-collar knowledge workers unemployed, which could increase default rates on U.S. consumer loans and mortgages, resulting in approximately $557 billion in losses for commercial banks. He stated that even if Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to $60,000, downward pressure would persist unless the Federal Reserve restarts quantitative easing.
In a potential financial crisis scenario where the Fed intervenes, Hayes revealed that his fund, Maelstrom, would redirect excess stablecoin positions toward ZEC and HYPE. His statements are seen as potentially triggering renewed speculation, particularly in altcoins.
