Bitcoin (BTC) is stabilizing around the $68,000 level following a sharp correction from the mid-$90,000s earlier this year to a local low near $60,000. The cryptocurrency is currently consolidating below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which sits around $83,000 and now acts as a key dynamic resistance level. Technical indicators, such as the Chaikin Money Flow remaining slightly negative at -0.03, suggest capital inflows are still weak and upside momentum remains capped until bulls can reclaim the 50-day SMA.
Beneath the surface, on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence for 2026 reveals a highly concentrated Bitcoin ownership structure, which could significantly shape the asset's next major price move. The data shows that a small number of entities control a substantial portion of the total BTC supply. Satoshi Nakamoto's original wallets still hold approximately 1.096 million BTC, representing over 5% of the total supply. Major exchanges are also massive holders, with Coinbase controlling close to 1 million BTC and Binance holding more than 600,000 BTC.
Institutional and governmental holdings are equally significant. BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF alone holds over 760,000 BTC. Corporate holder Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) controls more than 400,000 BTC, and the U.S. government holds over 300,000 BTC from various seizures. This concentration matters because large, long-term holders reduce the effective circulating supply. Satoshi's coins have never moved, and corporate and ETF holdings are typically long-term allocations rather than short-term trading inventory, structurally tightening supply.
Analysts note that if exchange-held Bitcoin begins declining while ETFs continue accumulating, the available float could tighten rapidly. In such a scenario, even modest renewed institutional demand could trigger an outsized upside price move. Conversely, a failure for BTC to hold the $65,000 support level could expose the $60,000 level again.
From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin is also testing key long-term support on the weekly chart. The price is sliding toward the 200-week SMA, currently near $58,224, a level historically watched as a long-term trend gauge. While the stacked order of long-term moving averages remains upward—reflecting a broader uptrend—the narrowing distance between price and the 200-week SMA indicates increased downside momentum.
On shorter timeframes, some analysts point to a potential wave 3 setup. Bitcoin recently reacted at a key Fibonacci retracement zone around $67,260, completing what is counted as an ABC correction inside a wave-(2). If this structure holds and price remains above the prior swing low, the path for a bullish wave-(3) move, with Fibonacci extension targets above prior highs, remains in play. The immediate technical roadmap hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold above this corrective base.
