A comprehensive analysis from Rabobank, the Dutch multinational banking leader, reveals that US trade policy is undergoing a fundamental recalibration in 2025, creating a new global economic architecture with direct implications for capital flows and financial markets. The emerging framework, termed the 'Donroe Doctrine', strategically links economic policy with national security, emphasizing strategic decoupling from geopolitical rivals, deeper integration with allies, and the instrumentalization of finance—including access to capital markets and the dollar system—as tools of statecraft.
This policy shift is already redirecting global capital. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) shows a marked preference for jurisdictions with strong US trade ties, while portfolio investment is becoming highly sensitive to regulatory and sanctions risk. Capital is increasingly flowing into strategically vital sectors like semiconductors and clean energy. Rabobank's data indicates these changes are structural, leading to increased trade and compliance costs, heightened USD volatility, and the corporate rise of dual supply chains.
Concurrently, BNY Mellon has issued a critical warning about escalating funding risks for the classic foreign exchange (FX) carry trade. The bank's analysis highlights that quantitative tightening (QT) and elevated policy rates from major central banks like the Federal Reserve are systematically draining dollar and euro liquidity from the financial system. This makes borrowing in traditional funding currencies like USD and EUR more expensive and less reliably available, particularly during market stress.
The convergence of these analyses points to a more fragmented, or 'polycentric', global economic landscape. Rabobank outlines scenarios ranging from managed decoupling to adversarial bifurcation, with a 'selective separation' in strategic sectors being the most likely path forward. For cryptocurrency markets, these macro shifts create a complex backdrop. The potential for reduced global liquidity and increased funding costs could pressure risk assets, while the search for alternative stores of value and investment avenues outside traditional, US dollar-dominated systems may intensify.
