The price of Hedera's native token, HBAR, is consolidating around the psychologically significant $0.10 level, a zone analysts are watching closely for signs of a potential major recovery. Crypto analyst Bmendo has drawn parallels between the current market structure and historical stress phases that preceded massive rallies for HBAR.
Bmendo's analysis highlights two key historical precedents. The first was during the 2020 COVID-19 market crash, where HBAR plummeted over 80% from around $0.05 to roughly $0.0098 within three months. From that low, the token staged a monumental recovery, soaring to an all-time high near $0.57 in September 2021—a gain exceeding 5,700%. The second stress phase occurred during the 2022 bear market, where HBAR fell approximately 94% from its peak to a low near $0.035. A subsequent recovery saw the price climb to around $0.40 by January 2025, marking a gain of over 1,000% from the bottom.
The current situation mirrors these past patterns. HBAR has retraced roughly 75% from its 2025 highs near $0.40 and is now trading in the $0.099 to $0.10 range. Bmendo frames this as a "consolidation test" that has historically appeared near the end of major downturns, suggesting the current phase could represent the "final fear phase" before a significant upward move.
Beyond technical patterns, fundamental developments continue. Despite price weakness, the Hedera network has expanded council participation, strengthened its real-world asset (RWA) infrastructure, and supported ecosystem projects like DOVU. Analysts connect the historical pattern to forward-looking catalysts, including developer events, DeFi launches like SILK, enterprise adoption, and broader macro conditions favoring risk assets.
Market data shows HBAR trading at $0.10 with a market capitalization of $4.36 billion. Technical indicators, including the MACD and RSI, point to a stabilization phase with diminishing bearish pressure, though the price remains below local resistance levels of $0.11-$0.12. The market appears to be in a cautious holding pattern, awaiting stronger directional cues either from broader crypto sentiment or network-specific developments to sustain a breakout.
