A new report from cryptocurrency investment firm and market maker Keyrock posits that U.S. Treasury bill issuance is the primary liquidity metric impacting Bitcoin's (BTC) price, challenging the widespread belief that Federal Reserve balance sheet actions or interest rate policy are the main drivers. According to the analysis, there is an approximately 80% correlation between T-bill issuance and BTC prices since 2021, with changes in issuance leading price movements by about eight months.
Keyrock researcher Amir Hajian detailed the mechanics, explaining that when the Treasury ramps up T-bill issuance to finance spending, that liquidity eventually flows into the real economy and risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, when issuance falls, that fiscal tailwind fades. The report quantifies the impact, stating that every 1% change in global liquidity levels influences BTC's price by 7.6% in the following business quarter.
However, the report notes that the rise of institutional investors and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has dampened Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity conditions by about 23%. Looking ahead, Keyrock forecasts that global liquidity will positively impact BTC prices in late 2026 and early 2027.
This projection is tied to a looming "wall" of U.S. debt maturity. With $38 trillion of national debt maturing over the next four years, the U.S. Treasury will need to refinance much of this debt at today's higher interest rates. Keyrock analysts project that to manage this, T-bill issuance will ramp up and sustain between $600 billion to $800 billion per year through 2028, creating a consistent source of liquidity that historically correlates with cryptocurrency market movements.
