Crypto market researcher Dom (@traderview2) has published a detailed analysis claiming to have identified a persistent, algorithmic seller of XRP on South Korea's Upbit exchange. According to his findings, this entity has offloaded approximately 3.3 billion XRP (worth roughly $5 billion) into the XRP/KRW order book over the past 10 months.
Dom's analysis is based on 82 million tick-level trades from Upbit's XRP/KRW pair, compared with 444 million trades from Binance's XRP/USDT market. The core conclusion is that Upbit's XRP/KRW pair has recorded a net negative cumulative volume delta (CVD) every single month for the last 10 months, with only one week out of 46 showing net positive buying pressure.
The selling is described as highly systematic and algorithmic. Dom reports that 57-60% of all sell-side trades were executed within 10 milliseconds, a hallmark of automated systems. He observed a single bot running for 17 hours straight with only a 33-second pause. Sell orders frequently appeared in round-number sizes (10, 50, 100, 500, 1000 XRP), while buy orders were often fractional amounts (e.g., 2.535 XRP), which Dom interprets as KRW-denominated retail purchases.
A key finding is the divergence between Upbit and global markets. Dom states that Binance's XRP/USDT market showed 2-5x less sell pressure during the same periods. For example, in June, Binance was net positive while Upbit saw a net outflow of -218 million XRP. The hourly correlation between the two venues' flows was only 0.37, suggesting Upbit's selling is driven by local factors.
Furthermore, from April through September, XRP on Upbit traded at a 3-6% discount compared to Binance—a "reverse Kimchi discount." This indicates the seller was willing to accept consistently worse execution prices, leading Dom to speculate the entity "needs KRW, are mandated to use Upbit, and/or are Korean holders taking profit."
The scale is significant: 3.3 billion XRP represents about 5.4% of XRP's entire circulating supply, moved through a single trading pair on one exchange. Dom notes that XRP balances on Upbit have reached a one-year high, exceeding 6.4 billion XRP (nearly 10% of circulating supply), while Binance's XRP reserves have hit their lowest level since early 2024.
Dom stopped short of identifying the specific entity behind the selling, posing the question: who can sustain selling 300-400 million XRP per month for a year, seemingly indifferent to a 6% price discount, and requires KRW specifically or is restricted to using Upbit?
