MetaPlanet and BitMine Face Stock Declines Despite Aggressive Crypto Accumulation

yesterday / 14:34 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • MetaPlanet's accounting loss highlights regulatory risks for corporate Bitcoin holdings despite strong operational performance.
  • BitMine's stock weakness is driven by its heightened correlation to bearish ETH futures sentiment, not its accumulation strategy.
  • Watch for a break below ¥293 in MetaPlanet as a technical signal that could trigger a 40% decline.

Two publicly traded companies with significant cryptocurrency holdings, MetaPlanet and BitMine Immersion Technologies, are experiencing notable stock price declines and bearish technical patterns, despite reporting strong operational results and continuing to aggressively accumulate digital assets.

Japanese firm MetaPlanet reported a staggering 700% surge in revenue for FY2025, driven entirely by its Bitcoin income business, which contributed 95% of total revenue. Operating profit jumped 1,700%. However, the company also reported a net loss of $619 million, which was entirely a non-cash accounting write-down due to Japanese rules requiring Bitcoin holdings to be marked to market. With Bitcoin ending 2025 between $85,000 and $90,000—below MetaPlanet's average acquisition cost of $107,000—the company took a ¥102 billion valuation adjustment. No Bitcoin was sold. MetaPlanet holds 35,102 BTC, making it the world's fourth-largest corporate holder, and aims for 100,000 BTC by end-2026 and 210,000 BTC (1% of supply) by 2027.

Despite these fundamentals, the MetaPlanet stock chart shows a concerning head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline at ¥293. A break below this level could trigger a 40% drop to around ¥164. Furthermore, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator crossed below zero in early February, signaling that large institutional money is exiting the stock. The company's 2026 guidance projects revenue of ¥16 billion and operating profit of ¥11.4 billion, but management declined to give a net income forecast, citing Bitcoin price volatility as the key uncontrollable variable.

In a parallel development, Tom Lee's BitMine Immersion Technologies purchased an additional 35,000 Ethereum (ETH) in a single day, pushing its total holdings to 4.371 million ETH. Its combined cash and crypto reserves are now worth approximately $9.6 billion. Contrary to the bullish signal this accumulation might suggest, BitMine's stock (BMNR) has fallen over 8% since February 13 and recently broke below the lower support of a bear flag pattern, risking a potential 50% further decline.

Underlying metrics show a divergence: On-Balance Volume (OBV) is rising, indicating retail accumulation, and CMF is improving but remains negative, suggesting institutional capital is still cautious. The primary driver of BitMine's stock weakness appears to be its high correlation with Ethereum's price, which has increased from 0.50 to 0.52. Bearish sentiment in Ethereum's futures market, with a low long-short ratio, is directly pressuring BMNR. Key support levels are now at $15, with a break potentially leading to $12 or $9, while a recovery would need to reclaim $21.

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