Two prominent crypto analysts have presented contrasting outlooks for Ethereum (ETH), highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the asset's near-term trajectory. Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, projects a strong potential for recovery within the next 12 months, while Bitwise investment analyst Max Shannon warns of a potential drop to the $1,500 level without a crucial new catalyst.
According to Farrell's analysis, the average cost basis for Ethereum investors is $2,241, with the current price of $1,934 representing an average loss of 22%. By applying historical data, Farrell suggests the price could potentially fall further to between $1,367 and $1,770. However, his model also indicates that Ethereum has a potential return of 81% over the next 12 months, suggesting the price may be approaching a cyclical bottom. "Such studies are particularly important for evaluating investor fund flows and position allocation during periods near bottom levels," noted Fundstrat founder Tom Lee, who shared the analysis.
In stark contrast, analyst Max Shannon issued a detailed caution, projecting that Ethereum could decline by approximately 22% from recent levels to around $1,500. This prediction is based on a clear lack of positive triggers in the current market environment. Shannon highlighted the absence of both macroeconomic and token-specific catalysts needed to restore bullish momentum.
The warning comes as Ethereum contends with an extended period of decline, having recorded six consecutive months of negative price performance. Shannon's analysis importantly identifies Bitcoin's performance as a pivotal factor, noting Ethereum's high statistical correlation with BTC and its tendency to exhibit greater volatility. When Bitcoin struggles, Ethereum often experiences amplified downward pressure.
The core of Shannon's warning hinges on the necessity for a new catalyst to reverse the current trajectory. Potential catalysts could emerge from several areas: macroeconomic shifts like Federal Reserve rate cuts, Ethereum-specific developments such as scaling solutions or protocol upgrades, institutional adoption via a spot Ethereum ETF, or positive regulatory clarity in key markets like the United States.
