Prediction markets platform Inframarkets is tackling the core issue of settlement risk and liquidity by introducing a deterministic oracle system anchored to machine-verifiable data, built on the Solana blockchain. The new Inframarkets Oracle System (IOS) aims to eliminate the "resolution risk" inherent in platforms like Polymarket, which rely on social consensus or token-holder voting to settle contracts.
The fundamental problem, as outlined by Inframarkets, is that when a market's outcome depends on human voters, professional liquidity providers treat the uncertainty as unquantifiable risk. This leads to wider spreads, capital retreat, and cyclical market activity. "Institutional-grade prediction markets require more than user activity. They require predictable settlement, reliable resolution mechanisms, and low legal ambiguity," the analysis states.
Inframarkets is specifically focusing on energy markets for its contracts, such as those based on ERCOT power prices or EIA benchmarks. This focus is strategic because energy events are tied to deep, global commodity markets, making positions inherently hedgeable. A liquidity provider can offset exposure using correlated instruments like CME futures, a structural advantage not possible with purely narrative markets like politics or sports.
Concurrently, rival prediction market Polymarket announced an exclusive partnership with newsletter platform Substack. The deal allows Substack writers to embed live, updating probability tables from Polymarket markets directly into their articles. Polymarket is also sponsoring a cohort of early-adopter creators to use the tool, extending its reach beyond its core trading audience.
While Polymarket's move integrates prediction market data into mainstream media consumption, Inframarkets is addressing the underlying infrastructure. By leveraging Solana for sub-second finality and combining it with the IOS for deterministic, data-driven settlement, Inframarkets is building what it calls an "institutional-grade" prediction market for on-chain energy derivatives.
