The U.S. Supreme Court is set to deliver a pivotal ruling on the legality of former President Donald Trump's tariff program, with significant potential implications for the broader economy and, by extension, cryptocurrency markets. Traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket are currently assigning a 74% probability that the Court will rule the tariffs illegal.
The Court has scheduled opinion dates for February 20, 24, and 25, 2026. The case centers on whether the tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), exceeded statutory authority. A ruling against the tariffs could trigger massive refund obligations, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warning potential exposure could range from $750 billion to $1 trillion, depending on the duration of the unlawful measures. This contrasts with a widely circulated but unsupported claim of a $300 billion refund.
"No one … gets to keep money he stole because he already spent it," said Scott Lincicome, a trade scholar at the Cato Institute, highlighting the legal principle of restitution. However, the process would be complex. Refunds would be disbursed from the U.S. Department of the Treasury to the importers of record, not directly to consumers, and eligibility would hinge on detailed documentary proof for specific shipments.
Former National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett warned that administering broad refunds would pose a major administrative problem, likely resulting in months of processing rather than immediate payments. The ruling's design could see initial refunds prioritized for companies already engaged in litigation, with broader implementation handled by fiscal officials.
For crypto markets, the decision represents a major macroeconomic event. A ruling against the tariffs and the subsequent potential injection of hundreds of billions of dollars back into the corporate sector could influence liquidity conditions, risk appetite, and institutional capital flows, all of which are key drivers for digital asset valuations. The high-stakes legal battle underscores the intersection of regulatory policy, fiscal dynamics, and financial markets.
