On-chain data has revealed a dramatic and simultaneous depletion of XRP reserves across two of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges. According to recent analyses, the supply of XRP on Coinbase has plummeted by approximately 90%, while reserves on Binance have fallen to their lowest levels since early 2024. This massive outflow has ignited intense market speculation, with prominent crypto commentator Ledger Man suggesting the moves could indicate large-scale, off-exchange accumulation by institutional players.
The speculation centers on BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. Ledger Man posits that the firm may be quietly purchasing substantial amounts of XRP through exchanges like Coinbase, potentially accumulating between 200 million and 400 million tokens. While unconfirmed, this theory aligns with BlackRock's expanding digital asset footprint following the launch of its spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, though previous rumors of an XRP ETF have proven false.
The scale of the withdrawal from Binance is particularly staggering. Data shared by analyst Ripple Bull Winkle shows that around 700 million XRP has exited Binance since its peak in November 2025, representing hundreds of millions of dollars at current prices. A separate analysis by Darkfost notes that Binance's XRP exchange supply ratio dropped from 0.0274 to 0.0255 over a ten-day period in February 2026, with nearly 200 million XRP leaving the platform. The analyst emphasized that when exchange balances remain low without a quick rebound, it typically signals holders are moving assets into private custody for long-term holding rather than preparing for immediate sale.
This supply contraction is occurring against a backdrop of weak price momentum for XRP, which is down roughly 40% from its early-year highs above $1.90, currently trading around $1.40. Despite the correction, on-chain metrics suggest a shift in behavior: whale inflows to exchanges have slowed to multi-month lows, and outflows from spot XRP ETF products have decelerated. Analysts interpret this combination—falling exchange reserves during a price decline—as a potential sign of "quiet accumulation" or a "post-capitulation absorption" phase, where long-term buyers are stepping in at lower prices.
However, commentators caution that declining exchange supply alone does not guarantee a price rally. Darkfost notes that while such patterns have historically preceded renewed buying interest, XRP still requires stronger demand and improved momentum to confirm a sustainable reversal. The event underscores the growing influence of institutional speculation and on-chain analytics in interpreting market movements.
