Bitcoin's network hashrate, a key metric measuring total computational power, has recorded a sharp V-shaped recovery in February 2026, rebounding from a major shock in early January. The recovery has raised hopes that Bitcoin may end its five-month losing streak, as historical data suggests hashrate recoveries often precede strong price rebounds.
The initial hashrate shock was triggered by an extreme Arctic cold wave across the United States, which strained the national power grid with freezing temperatures, heavy snowfall, and surging heating demand. Authorities issued energy-saving requests, leading to localized blackouts. This event caused the network's hashrate to drop by roughly 30%, with around 1.3 million mining machines going offline and slowing block production.
By February, data showed a swift turnaround. Hashrate rebounded from below 850 EH/s to over 1 ZH/s, recovering nearly all of the previous large downward adjustment. Mononaut, a developer at Mempool, commented, "Bitcoin mining just got ~15% harder, with the largest ever increase in absolute difficulty, completely erasing last epoch's huge downwards adjustment."
Despite the recovery in hashrate, Bitcoin's price continues to fluctuate below $70,000 and has not mirrored the same strength. According to analytics platform Hedgeye, the cost to mine one Bitcoin in February is approximately $84,000, suggesting many miners are still operating at a loss.
Historical precedent and miner behavior provide context. A notable example occurred in mid-2021 after China's mining ban, where a hashrate plunge of more than 50% was later followed by a V-shaped recovery that paralleled a powerful price rebound from around $30,000 to above $60,000. Satoxis, a Bitcoin OG, stated, "Bitcoin network hashrate has sharply recovered after the recent dip, a strong signal that miner confidence remains intact... Historically, hashrate is a leading indicator during recoveries. Price tends to follow hashrate."
Data from CryptoQuant on Bitcoin Miner Outflow supports the view that miners expect a price recovery. The 7-day average outflow from miner wallets has fallen to its lowest level since May 2023, indicating miners are no longer aggressively selling their holdings and are instead holding in anticipation of a potential rebound.
Market context and future outlook remain cautious. January was brutal for Bitcoin, with the price sliding from $90,000 to a February 6 low near $60,008. During this period, ETFs saw $544 million in outflows in a single day, and futures markets flushed $2 billion in liquidations. Mining difficulty posted its biggest negative adjustment since the 2021 China ban, a sign of capitulation often seen near market bottoms.
Analysts note that for a sustained recovery, Bitcoin needs confirmation through a breakout above key resistance levels, specifically $71,693 or $74,000 to confirm a real reversal. If BTC can stay above $70,000, the next upside target sits around $83,000; losing momentum could open the downside back toward the $49,000 to $53,000 zone. The recovery shows industrial miners like Foundry USA and Marathon Digital (MARA) absorbed the shock and are leaning bullish, but tight margins and potential Federal Reserve hawkishness remain risks.
