Bitcoin's adherence to a long-standing predictive model is under threat, with a potential "first break" of its Power Law floor projected by mid-December 2026 if the price remains near current levels. Simultaneously, on-chain data reveals a significant shift in market structure, with whales depositing over $8.2 billion worth of BTC onto Binance in the past month, the highest inflow in 14 months, while retail momentum fades.
The Bitcoin Power Law model, a time-based regression that treats BTC's long-run price as a power curve, shows a rising floor that increases by roughly 0.093% per day. As of mid-February 2026, the floor is near $51,128, with Bitcoin trading around $67,000. However, the floor is not static. Projections indicate it will rise to approximately $62,700 by October 1, $64,400 by October 31, and reach $68,000 by year-end. This means if Bitcoin stays flat near $67,000, the floor will catch up to the price by mid-December, creating a headline narrative of a first-ever break.
Analyst Maartunn's on-chain data adds a layer of real-time pressure, showing whale dominance is intensifying. Over the past 30 days, approximately $8.24 billion in whale-held BTC has flowed into Binance. In contrast, retail inflows, while totaling $11.91 billion, have begun to flatten. The retail-to-whale ratio is compressing to 1.45, signaling that price action is increasingly influenced by large-scale institutional actors rather than fragmented retail sentiment. This surge in whale deposits to the primary liquidity venue often signals strategic repositioning, distribution, or hedging.
The technical backdrop is weakening. Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the $69,000 level and is in a corrective phase following a rejection near $120,000 in late 2025. It is now testing the $65,000–$70,000 support region. Volume expanded during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer has publicly framed roughly $65,000 as a "line in the sand" level, adding institutional weight to the psychological significance of this zone, which rhymes with the Power Law model's rising floor.
A break of the Power Law floor would not "invalidate Bitcoin" but would challenge this specific model parameterization, signal a potential regime change toward slower growth, and provide critics with a clear narrative. The model's scientific framers, like astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi, argue it is falsifiable, making the coming months a clean test. Critics like Amdax's Tim Stolte argue power-law fits to Bitcoin are statistically fragile and driven by sample window sensitivity.
