The Netherlands Gambling Authority (Ksa) has ordered prediction market platform Polymarket to immediately cease all operations in the country, classifying its services as illegal gambling. The regulator issued a penalty order to Adventure One QSS Inc., Polymarket's operator, threatening fines of €420,000 ($462,000) per week for non-compliance, up to a maximum of €840,000 ($924,000).
Ksa director Ella Seijsener stated that prediction markets offer "bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances," citing social risks such as potential influence on elections. She emphasized that "Anyone without a Ksa license has no business in our market." This enforcement reflects the Netherlands' traditionally strict regulatory posture, which prioritizes consumer protection and licensing compliance over a permissive, innovation-first approach.
The action comes amid explosive global growth for prediction markets. Combined monthly trading volumes on leading platforms exceed $13.5 billion, with over 43 million transactions processed, according to a November 2025 report. Despite this growth, platforms like Polymarket and its main competitor Kalshi face mounting legal scrutiny worldwide, with challenges in the U.S., UK, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, and now the Netherlands.
Prediction market operators argue their products are financial instruments or "event contracts," not gambling. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has stated, "If we are gambling, then I think you’re basically calling the entire financial market gambling." However, regulators focus on the economic reality: users stake value on uncertain outcomes for a financial return.
Despite the regulatory headwinds, Polymarket continues commercial expansion, recently announcing partnerships with Substack for newsletter integrations and with Major League Soccer. The Dutch ban forces the platform to implement geoblocking for Dutch users and could signal stricter enforcement across Europe as authorities grapple with classifying these blockchain-based markets.
