Rumors and market sentiment are intensifying around a definitive timeline for a comprehensive U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill, often seen as a refined successor to previous legislative efforts like FIT21. Industry projections suggest the bill could lead to a "70% reduction in manipulation," though these remain estimates rather than formal guarantees. The legislative push is reportedly aiming for passage before the end of May 2026, a timeline tied to the Congressional calendar and a desire to secure a "Clean Crypto Summer" before political focus shifts to midterm election campaigns.
Core provisions of the bill are designed to address long-standing ambiguities. It would formally define regulatory jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), aiming to end classification disputes. The legislation would mandate real-time surveillance standards on exchanges, including anti-wash trading controls, and include structural safeguards like prohibiting platforms from acting simultaneously as trading venues, market makers, and lending desks—an "anti-FTX" clause. It also proposes strict stablecoin transparency requirements, mandating 1:1 backing with high-quality liquid assets.
Market expectations for passage vary. Prediction markets like Polymarket currently signal high confidence, with odds for a related "Clarity Act" reaching as high as 90% for passage by April 2026. Other estimates are more conservative, ranging from 55% to 80%, highlighting that while bipartisan momentum is real, final compromise on wording—particularly around stablecoin provisions—remains a variable.
Analysts, including Michaël van de Poppe, suggest the bill's passage could be a major de-risking event for the crypto market, potentially unlocking institutional capital sidelined by legal uncertainty. Ethereum (ETH) is cited as a primary beneficiary due to its role in smart contracts and DeFi, with the legislation expected to clarify token classification and staking reward legality, potentially entrenching ETH as a "digital commodity." The broader market, including Bitcoin (BTC), would also benefit from reduced structural risk premiums, though short-term volatility around the announcement is anticipated, following a potential "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic.
