The USD/CHF currency pair surged to its highest level in eight sessions on Thursday, December 4, 2025, following a dramatic plunge in US weekly jobless claims that reinforced expectations of sustained Federal Reserve hawkishness. The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 for the week ending November 29, 2025, notably undershooting consensus estimates of 215,000 and representing the lowest reading in over four months.
Consequently, the USD/CHF pair broke through key technical resistance at the 0.9250 level, reaching an intraday peak of 0.9287. Market analysts interpreted the data as a clear signal that the US labor market remains exceptionally tight, thereby reducing immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in early 2026. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note jumped 8 basis points following the claims data, enhancing the dollar's yield appeal.
The move was particularly pronounced against the Swiss franc due to a stark policy divergence. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a persistently dovish stance relative to other major central banks, frequently citing the franc's historical strength as a deflationary risk. Switzerland's latest inflation reading of 1.2% year-over-year remains comfortably within the SNB's target band, affording the bank little justification for aggressive monetary tightening. The SNB's stated policy of combating excessive franc appreciation through foreign currency interventions has created a persistent overhang of supply in the market.
Analysts point to key factors pressuring the CHF: the SNB's commitment to negative policy rates, repeated verbal warnings against franc strength, improved global risk sentiment reducing safe-haven flows, and Switzerland's reliance on European energy markets which creates imported inflation risks the SNB seeks to mitigate.
Market participants are now closely monitoring upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls data and Swiss sight deposit figures as proxies for SNB intervention activity. Claudia Steiner, Chief Currency Strategist at Zürcher Kantonalbank, noted, "The market's reaction is rational but perhaps overly focused on a single data point. The SNB has a very low tolerance for franc appreciation and possesses both the willingness and the tools to counteract it. The 0.9350 level represents a critical zone where their intervention alarms may sound."
Meanwhile, the USD/CHF pair demonstrates remarkable resilience in a separate development, maintaining its position near the 0.7750 level on Thursday, January 30, 2025, as markets await the imminent release of two pivotal US economic indicators: the advanced estimate for fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Consensus forecasts project an annualized GDP growth rate of approximately 2.2% and a Core PCE yearly rise of 2.8%.
