Macroeconomist Lyn Alden suggests Bitcoin's next major bull run could be triggered by a capital rotation from overvalued artificial intelligence stocks. On the Coin Stories podcast, Alden stated, "It could be that the AI stocks eventually just peak, they get so silly big that they can’t get realistically much higher." When such assets peak, capital often seeks new opportunities with greater upside potential. With Bitcoin trading down 46% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100, Alden posits it could be a primary beneficiary of this shift.
However, Bitcoin developer Mark Carallo notes that the surge in AI investment means Bitcoin is now "competing for capital" in a novel and intense way. Despite this competition, Alden believes Bitcoin wouldn't need a massive influx of capital to move higher. "It only takes a marginal amount of new demand to come in," she said, explaining that long-term holders provide a price floor as short-term traders exit. She does not expect a rapid, V-shaped recovery, forecasting instead a period of sideways movement or further grinding price action.
Simultaneously, a stark warning from Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards highlights a significant, long-term risk to Bitcoin's valuation: quantum computing. In a February 20 report, Edwards argues markets have begun pricing in this "existential" risk, which could materialize within the decade. The core threat, dubbed "Q-Day," is when quantum computers could crack Bitcoin's current elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), potentially exposing 20–30% of Bitcoin's supply to theft and forced liquidation.
Edwards introduces a "Quantum Discount Factor," suggesting Bitcoin's fair value should already be discounted by about 20% to account for the probability of Q-Day occurring by 2028. He warns this discount could widen sharply to 40% by 2027 and up to 75% by 2029 if the network fails to upgrade to quantum-resistant code in time. He attributes Bitcoin's anomalous underperformance in 2025—its first negative post-halving year—to markets entering the "Quantum Event Horizon," where the upgrade timeline is uncomfortably close to the quantum threat timeline.
Despite this, Edwards' Energy Value model estimates Bitcoin's fair value at around $120,000. After applying the 20% quantum discount, the adjusted fair value is approximately $96,000. With Bitcoin trading around $67,849 in late February 2026, he contends the asset is still roughly 30% undervalued—but only if the network successfully migrates to quantum-resistant signatures within the next 2-3 years. He notes that institutional allocators have already begun reducing exposure due to quantum concerns, explaining Bitcoin's relative weakness versus gold and equities.
