Bitcoin is trading near $68,240, down 45% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, as the market grapples with a prolonged bearish phase. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at a deeply fearful level of 14, and Bitcoin is on the verge of printing five consecutive negative monthly closes—a rare event that has only occurred three times in its history, in 2011 and twice during the 2018 bear market.
Analysts are closely watching five converging signals to determine if this is a bear market bottom or a pause before another leg down. First, historical precedent shows that the previous three instances of five straight negative monthly closes were each followed by a 100% rebound over the next five months, as noted by crypto analyst Lark Davis.
Second, the correlation with traditional markets is a critical factor. Institutional research firm Ecoinometrics warns that while Bitcoin is already below its 200-day moving average, the Nasdaq 100's 200-day MA is still rising. The firm stated, "There is no historical example of tech entering a real bear phase while Bitcoin quietly stabilizes." A breakdown in equities could trigger a sharper drop for Bitcoin.
Third, Bitcoin's market structure has shifted. Data shows Bitcoin's 12-month realized volatility has stayed below Nvidia's since late 2022, indicating that ETF flows now dominate trend formation, making Bitcoin more structurally durable but also more sensitive to equity market drawdowns.
Fourth, a potential altcoin revival signal is flashing. The Others/BTC chart has printed its first sustained bullish MACD crossover since April 2022, holding for two months. The last similar sustained crossover was in May 2020, right before the massive altcoin rally into 2021.
Fifth, a regulatory catalyst is on the horizon. The Crypto CLARITY Act holds roughly 85-90% odds of passing on prediction markets, with the White House setting a March 1 deadline to resolve a stablecoin yield dispute. Davis called this the potential "spark" for the market.
Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals an absence of a 'full cleansing' in the market. The Sales Pressure signal has been absent for a record 1,133 days, and Bitcoin's price remains above the on-chain realized price of $54.8k. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlights this $54.8k level as a crucial structural buffer; a sustained drop below it would push the average holder into a loss, activating sales pressure and signaling a phase of maximum network stress. While the long-term market environment remains bearish, a recent positive shift in monthly cumulative Bitcoin demand is an early constructive sign that structural accumulation may be absorbing new supply.
