New research highlights a significant theoretical vulnerability in the Bitcoin network, with up to 6.89 million BTC potentially at risk from future quantum computing attacks. This figure includes approximately 1 million BTC attributed to the network's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. The coins in question are those created under older transaction formats where public keys were exposed on-chain, which could allow a sufficiently advanced quantum computer to derive private keys.
The core of the debate, as outlined in recent analyses, centers on a profound protocol dilemma. Developers are researching quantum-resistant signature schemes, such as lattice-based cryptography, which could be introduced via a soft fork. However, any upgrade would require users to migrate funds to new address formats. This presents a major coordination challenge, especially for the roughly 3.4 million BTC that have remained dormant for over a decade. If holders fail to migrate, their coins could be exposed.
The debate intensifies around whether a security upgrade should involve freezing vulnerable, un-migrated coins to protect the network, or if Bitcoin should preserve its foundational principle of strict immutability at all costs. Historically, such fundamental changes have required broad social consensus across miners, node operators, developers, and users, with past debates like block size leading to chain splits rather than enforced changes.
Concurrently, financial analysis firm Capriole Investments has quantified the market impact of this threat. Founder Charles Edwards argues that logical market participants must apply a "Quantum Discount Factor" to Bitcoin's fair value. His research, compiling expert predictions on "Q-Day" (when quantum computers could break Bitcoin's cryptography), suggests a 60% chance of such an event by 2030.
Edwards estimates that upgrading Bitcoin's protocol would realistically take about two years. Given the timeline of the threat versus the upgrade, he calculates that Bitcoin currently carries a 20% discount to its fair value due to quantum risk. This discount is projected to rise to nearly 40% by 2027, 60% by 2028, and 75% by 2029 if no defensive action is taken. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading around $67,700.
