Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has made a bold long-term projection for Bitcoin, forecasting a 28% compound annual return over the next ten years. This outlook starkly contrasts with his expectations of roughly 5% for equities and about 4% for bonds, positioning Bitcoin as a potential portfolio outlier for long-horizon investors.
Hougan delivered this forecast while characterizing the current market environment as a "classic bear market," drawing parallels to the 2018 and 2022 crypto winters. He argues that crypto still appears to follow a four-year cycle, driven by investor belief and positioning, which can create self-fulfilling behavior and extend drawdowns. This cycle pressure is evident in the divergence between institutional and retail participants: institutions continued accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum through late 2025, while many retail investors absorbed steep losses, with numerous altcoins down 70% or more from prior highs.
Despite the weak price action, Hougan maintains that fundamentals are strengthening. He cites expanding use cases in DeFi, stablecoins, and the tokenization of real-world assets, alongside major digital-asset efforts from firms like BlackRock and Apollo. His base case anticipates a slow, U-shaped recovery, with 2026 serving as a bottoming year and 2027 bringing prices closer to these strengthening fundamentals.
Regarding exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Hougan expects them to widen gradually beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, though he believes institutional capital will remain concentrated in leading assets or index-style products. He also downplayed near-term risks from corporate holders like MicroStrategy, stating that forced selling would likely require a prolonged 80% price decline. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading at $68,122, up 1.5% over 24 hours.
Supporting this long-term view, a separate analysis of Bitcoin's price trajectory from 2026-2030 highlights the critical role of the next halving event, expected to create a supply shock. The analysis notes that Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets is decreasing, potentially enhancing its diversification role. Key long-term drivers identified include global monetary policy (inflation hedging), technological scaling (Taproot, Lightning Network), and evolving regulatory frameworks. The finite supply of 21 million coins is seen as increasingly relevant as adoption grows.
