Technical analysts are observing a striking similarity between the current market behavior of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) and the pattern that unfolded during the 2021–2022 market cycle. The core of the comparison lies in both assets losing their critical 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after a market top, followed by an aggressive price decline.
Market analyst Axel Bitblaze noted on X that the sequence is aligning "quite cleanly": a market top, loss of the 50-week EMA, an aggressive dump, and then a bottom. While not a "perfect fractal," the structural resemblance has sparked significant discussion among traders. The 50-week EMA is a key long-term trend indicator, and a sustained break below it often signals weakening momentum, a pattern that preceded deeper corrections in the 2022 cycle.
Ethereum is showing a comparable formation on higher time frames, having also lost its 50-week EMA after peaking. Separately, analyst Trader Tardigrade highlighted a potential monthly "fractal" pattern for ETH, comparing the 2024 dip and 2025–2026 double-dip structure to the 2019–2020 cycle, which ultimately led to a significant rebound.
A crucial divergence from the 2022 cycle is the compressed timeline. The 2025–2026 rally and topping phase developed more rapidly than the previous bull market. Some analysts suggest that if the upward move was faster, the subsequent corrective phase could also be shorter, potentially leading to a quicker bottom formation.
Despite the bearish price action, Ethereum is witnessing record accumulation. Data from CryptoRank.io and CryptoQuant shows ETH inflows to accumulation wallets surged to multi-year highs in early 2026 even as prices slid, indicating strong buying interest during the downturn. This divergence between price and accumulation volume presents a contrasting signal to the technical breakdown.
Analysts caution that these patterns are reference points, not guarantees, and that broader macroeconomic conditions will ultimately influence the market's direction. Traders are closely monitoring weekly closes and volume data for confirmation of a potential bottom.
