KITE crypto has transitioned from a period of low-volatility consolidation into a full-blown on-chain expansion phase, driven by coordinated capital movement from large investors. After weeks of muted activity through December and early January, the network saw a dramatic shift in late January, marked by surging whale transactions, accelerated exchange flows, and exploding volume, all of which propelled the KITE price upward.
The on-chain data reveals a clear sequence: a spike in large transactions (those above $100K and $1M) preceded the most aggressive phase of price expansion. This suggests whales positioned themselves early, before increased volatility and broader market participation. Exchange flows showed high velocity, with both deposits and withdrawals expanding simultaneously, indicating active trading and capital rotation rather than simple exit flows—a dynamic typical of expansion phases.
Key metrics support the bullish narrative. The 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) turned sharply positive heading into February, showing short-term holders are in profit, while the 365-day MVRV also climbed. The MVRV Z-score moved toward elevated levels but not into historically extreme territory, suggesting KITE is in a profitable expansion phase that is not yet overheated.
From a price perspective, KITE rallied in phases rather than a single spike. After building a base and respecting a rising trendline near $0.16, the price broke through the $0.24–$0.25 resistance zone, advancing sharply toward $0.265–$0.268. At press time, the price was testing resistance near $0.2706. The rally represents a significant recovery: from a low of $0.06123 in November 2025 to $0.2722 by February 20, 2026—a 333.28% gain—with a 153.4% increase over the preceding 30 days.
Market activity intensified alongside the price surge. The 24-hour trading volume rose to between $192.8–$193.4 million, lifting KITE's market capitalization to roughly $477.56 million. Derivatives data added further confirmation: Open Interest (OI) climbed from $35–$40 million to breach $60 million and then accelerate toward $100–$120 million as the price pressed $0.26–$0.27. Funding rates flipped persistently positive, reaching 0.03%–0.045% during upside expansions, indicating longs were paying a premium to maintain exposure—a sign of speculative conviction.
While the momentum is structurally intact, risks are present. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached approximately 70.6, signaling robust momentum but also short-term strain. Crowded long positioning increases vulnerability to leverage unwinds if momentum cools. The immediate challenge is a dense resistance cluster between $0.277 and $0.2995. Sustained closes above $0.27 could extend the rally toward $0.30–$0.35, while failure could trigger a pullback toward support at $0.248 or $0.23–$0.25. A deeper correction could expose Fibonacci retracement levels at $0.1995 (50%) or $0.1808 (61.8%).
The on-chain data points toward a growth phase driven by whale positioning, rising volume, and renewed speculative participation. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether this aggressive expansion cycle builds into continued momentum or matures into a volatility-driven shakeout.
