XRP is navigating a precarious technical landscape as it trades below the critical $1.45 level, with its weekly Bollinger Bands signaling expanding downside risk. The price is leaning against the lower boundary at $1.32, and the combination of a widening band and price action near the floor suggests building pressure. Historically, when XRP has "walked" the lower band on a weekly chart, the subsequent move has been significant.
The broader bearish context is defined by the 20-week moving average, which sits near $2 and continues to point lower. Since XRP peaked above $3 in late 2025, every rally has failed beneath this line, maintaining a structure of lower highs and lower closes. The current price behavior is concerning, as it is printing smaller weekly candles near the $1.30 floor instead of bouncing aggressively, indicating sellers are not yet exhausted. A decisive break lower could target the $1.274 level, where the daily Bollinger Band is currently stretching.
Amidst the technical pressure, on-chain data reveals potential accumulation and shifting sentiment. Approximately 200 million XRP left the Binance exchange over a 10-day period, reducing the exchange supply ratio from 0.027 to 0.025. This outflow typically signals coins moving to private wallets for holding rather than immediate selling. Concurrently, XRP funding rates on Binance plunged to -0.028%, the lowest level since April 2025. Negative funding, where short sellers pay a premium, has historically preceded price bounces in late 2024 and April 2025. Sentiment around XRP has also climbed to a five-week high, contrasting with cooling sentiment for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Institutional adoption of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) continues to advance, providing a fundamental counter-narrative. The total value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) on XRPL has surpassed $354 million. Notably, a recent report found that 63% of all tokenized U.S. treasuries are held on the XRPL. Major institutions like DBS Group, Franklin Templeton, and UK investment firm Aviva are building trading, lending, and issuance infrastructure on the ledger.
A significant development is Deutsche Bank's announcement of integration with Ripple Payments, marking a move away from legacy SWIFT-based cross-border systems. This follows Ripple securing its first Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license. While banks can utilize Ripple's technology without holding XRP, the broader network adoption increases its visibility and utility. The total value of tokenized RWAs across all public blockchains reached just over $24 billion at the end of January 2026, with XRPL capturing a growing share.
For the price to signal a bullish trend reversal, bulls must defend the key support zone between $1.19 and $1.36 and achieve a decisive break above the $1.67 resistance level.
