The price of Solana (SOL) is currently trading around $83.69, showing a modest 1.5% gain over 24 hours within a daily range of $79.82 to $83.64. Despite this short-term bounce, the broader trend remains bearish as SOL trades well below key technical indicators, including the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately $106.66 and the 100-day EMA near $124.18.
A notable development in the derivatives market is the sharp drop in funding rates into negative territory, indicating that a significant number of traders are shorting SOL. This extreme positioning sets the stage for a potential short squeeze, where a sudden upward price move could force short sellers to cover their positions, potentially propelling SOL toward the $100 resistance zone. Analyst curb.sol identifies a consolidation range between $75 and $90, suggesting that a breakout above $90 with strong volume could target the $120 level.
On-chain data presents a divergence: new wallet creation on the Solana network continues to rise despite the falling price, a pattern historically associated with accumulation phases. However, social dominance for SOL has declined since its September peak, indicating reduced hype which may signal the exit of short-term traders.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, technical analysis on the monthly chart reveals significant challenges. Analyst greenytrades points to a heavy supply zone below $300, an area where sellers have previously defended, creating substantial overhead resistance. He links this pressure to SOL's token inflation, which can generate steady sell pressure, arguing that SOL needs "permanent buyers" rather than cyclical bull market flows to sustain prices above $300.
Furthermore, analyst Ali Charts highlights a repeat sell signal on the monthly chart, drawing parallels to the structure seen before SOL's deep drawdown in the prior cycle. The current price is now approaching a monthly fair value gap (FVG) zone, which often acts as a price magnet, making it a critical decision area for whether SOL stabilizes or continues its decline.
