Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has explicitly tied his vote at the upcoming March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to the February employment report, creating a clear data-dependent framework for monetary policy. Waller stated that softer labor market data would strengthen the case for another interest rate cut, while resilient hiring figures would argue for maintaining the current policy stance.
The key metrics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) February jobs report that will influence the decision include headline nonfarm payrolls, revisions to prior months' data, the unemployment rate, labor-force participation, and average hourly earnings. Waller emphasized that sector breadth is crucial; broad-based job gains would support a pause, whereas narrower hiring or downward revisions would tilt the argument toward a cut. Cooling wage growth, especially on a three-month annualized basis, would add to the case for easing policy.
"It's a 'coin flip' right now," Waller was quoted as saying, highlighting the current uncertainty. Market pricing, as reported, currently leans toward no change in March unless the February data shows a marked deterioration in labor conditions. The odds could shift significantly based on surprises in payrolls, wages, or revisions.
The January employment report, which surprised to the upside, left questions about the breadth of the labor market's strength, making the February report a pivotal tiebreaker for policymakers. The final decision will weigh the labor market read alongside progress on inflation.
Amid this macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin exhibited significant volatility, trading around $65,942 at the time of writing with 11.03% volatility. The cryptocurrency recorded 12 green days in the past 30 sessions, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 37.87. Bitcoin's spot price remained below its 50-day simple moving average of $81,613 and its 200-day simple moving average of $99,225, with market sentiment indicators described as bearish.
