The cryptocurrency market has shown mixed signals over recent days, with Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP experiencing fluctuations. Amid this, Hyperliquid's native token, HYPE, has emerged as a focal point of volatility and technical analysis.
HYPE's price action has been contradictory. Initially, it was among the best performers in the top 20 by market cap, rising 2% to trade above $29, extending a rebound. Technical indicators suggested a potential breakout above the $30 psychological resistance level, with a possible rally towards $33.40, representing a roughly 10% upside. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover on the 4-hour chart, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was near neutral at 48.
However, this price resilience starkly contrasts with bearish derivatives data. HYPE's Open Interest (OI) has been in a steady decline, standing at $1.31 billion, indicating waning investor participation and reduced risk appetite as traders close positions. On Binance, futures OI fell to $146.15 million. Furthermore, the long-to-short ratio hit a 30-day low of 0.76, and the OI-Weighted Funding Rate turned negative to -0.032%, reflecting a market betting on further price declines.
The broader macroeconomic context adds to the caution. Over the weekend, statements from US President Donald Trump about increasing global tariffs to 15% introduced additional market uncertainty, contributing to a risk-off sentiment that impacted assets like HYPE.
Technically, HYPE faces a critical juncture. It is trading below its 50- and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), confirming a prevailing bearish bias. The immediate support lies at $28.15, with a more crucial weekly support at $26.85. A break below this could trigger a steeper decline toward $25.60 or even $23.91. For a bullish reversal, HYPE must decisively break above the confluence of resistance near $30, which includes the 50-period EMA at $29.95 and a descending trendline.
