Global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, are entering a pivotal week packed with major events that could shape investor sentiment. The focal points include Nvidia's Q4 2025 earnings report, a series of Federal Reserve speeches, and the ongoing economic fallout from a landmark Supreme Court tariff ruling.
The Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling on Friday struck down the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs. The decision, which affected roughly 60% of imposed tariffs, triggered a modest market rally, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.7% on Friday. In response, the White House announced it would implement a new 10% global tariff using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The ruling opens the door for potential tariff refunds estimated at up to $175 billion, a process now moving to trade courts.
Nvidia's earnings report after the market close on Wednesday stands as the first major test of AI spending sentiment in 2026. The chip giant, the world's most valuable company, reported Q3 2025 revenue of $57.01 billion, beating expectations by over $2 billion, with Data Center revenue soaring 66% year-over-year to $51.2 billion. However, CEO Jensen Huang has guided for zero data-center compute revenue from China in Q4 due to export limits, noting H20 chip sales were only around $50 million. Huang has also teased "several new chips the world has never seen before" for the upcoming GTC 2026 event in March.
Investors will also parse economic data and a heavy schedule of Federal Reserve commentary. Key data includes Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI), expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase. Eleven Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, with markets keen to gauge their views on inflation, which remains above the 2% target, and the potential path for interest rates. Governor Christopher Waller is among those favoring steeper rate cuts.
Geopolitical tensions add another layer of uncertainty, with oil prices up approximately 15% since January 2026 due to rising US-Iran nuclear tensions. Analysts at Rystad Energy warn a limited US strike could temporarily push oil up by $10 per barrel, with a sustained campaign potentially adding $15 or more.
