As President Donald Trump prepared to deliver his first State of the Union address of his second term, prediction markets were actively setting odds on the event's content. The speech, scheduled for 9 PM ET, was expected to cover topics from the economy and trade to immigration and national security.
Prediction markets like Polymarket have created a specific listing titled "What will Trump say during the State of the Union address?" Among the various outcomes, the market assigns a 27% probability that Trump will mention Crypto or Bitcoin during his speech. This places the topic as a notable, though not certain, talking point. In comparison, the probability he mentions Artificial Intelligence (AI) is significantly higher at 78%.
The broader context of the address involves Trump defending his administration's performance and outlining future goals amidst a complex political landscape. Key expected themes include a boastful take on the U.S. economy, a response to a recent Supreme Court ruling that limited his emergency tariff powers, and disciplined messaging on immigration and border security. Foreign policy, particularly regarding Iran, is also anticipated to be a focus, though likely without specific details.
While State of the Union speeches rarely change minds overnight, they reveal administration priorities. The integration of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, which is also hosting event-driven outcomes for the speech, adds a novel, speculative layer to the political event, allowing individuals to bet on specific verbal outcomes.
