AAVE and AERO Face Critical Resistance Tests Amid Rising Leverage and Spot Demand

yesterday / 22:16 1 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • AAVE's CVD flip to buy dominance suggests institutional accumulation, but crowded longs near $120.69 create high volatility risk.
  • AERO's 15% surge on 109% volume spike indicates speculative momentum, yet remains trapped in a descending channel below $0.50 resistance.
  • Watch for AAVE to trigger a short squeeze above $130 or face long liquidations if rejected at the $120.69 cluster.

AAVE is testing a critical technical inflection point near the $130 resistance level, trading at the upper boundary of its long-term descending channel around $116. The 90-day cumulative volume delta (CVD) has flipped firmly into taker buy dominance, signaling aggressive spot demand where buyers are actively lifting offers. This shift suggests accumulation behavior rather than short covering. However, the price structure remains corrective, printing lower highs within the channel.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stabilized near 42–43, improving from oversold conditions but still below the 50 equilibrium line, indicating easing downside pressure without confirming a macro reversal. Meanwhile, Binance top traders are heavily positioned for upside, with 63.46% of positions on the long side, resulting in a long/short ratio of 1.74. This concentrated long exposure amplifies volatility risk.

A significant liquidation cluster is stacked just above the current price around $120.69, where liquidation leverage peaks at approximately 134.91K. This dense band acts as a volatility trigger; a break above could fuel a short squeeze, while a rejection could trigger sharp unwinds of crowded longs. The immediate support zone remains near $100.

Aerodrome Finance (AERO) has surged nearly 15% in 24 hours, with trading volume jumping over 109%, signaling renewed speculative interest. The price is hovering near $0.3280, rebounding from the key support at $0.27407 but facing immediate resistance at $0.35893. The broader structure is constrained within a long-term descending regression channel, with $0.50 representing the major structural resistance.

Directional indicators show internal pressure rebalancing: the +DI line is rising toward a potential crossover above the -DI line, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 31.55 but is trending lower, indicating the prior bearish trend is losing strength. Spot Taker CVD has also flipped into buy dominance over 90 days, confirming genuine spot buying pressure supporting the rally.

Open Interest (OI) has expanded 24.69% to $19.54 million, indicating fresh capital entering derivatives markets and increasing leverage stakes. This raises the potential for amplified volatility—upside if resistance is broken, or sharp downside moves if the price rejects at $0.35893. The immediate structural floor remains at $0.27407.

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