Shares of major payment networks Visa, Mastercard, and American Express experienced a sharp sell-off on Monday, driven by a speculative research note warning of potential disruption from artificial intelligence. Visa's stock fell 4.5%, closing at $306.52 after opening at $319.04 and hitting a low of $304.71. The decline was more severe for its peers, with Mastercard dropping 5.7% and American Express tumbling 7.2%.
The catalyst was a Substack post published Sunday by independent research firm Citrini Research. The post presented a hypothetical scenario dated June 30, 2028, where widespread AI adoption displaces white-collar workers, leading to high unemployment and a market downturn. Within this scenario, Citrini identified Visa as particularly vulnerable, suggesting that AI agents acting on behalf of consumers could seek cheaper payment routes, threatening the company's 2%-3% network and processing fees. The research specifically floated stablecoins as a potential alternative payment rail that could bypass traditional card networks entirely.
Market strategist Tom Hainlin of U.S. Bank Wealth Management characterized the reaction as "sell first, assess later." The sell-off reflected broader market anxiety about business models that function as "toll booths" on transactions. By Tuesday premarket, sentiment showed slight stabilization, with Visa edging up 0.2% to $307.09.
Separately, Visa and Mastercard face ongoing regulatory pressure from a pending $38 billion swipe fee settlement with merchants, which still awaits a judge's approval. Merchant groups, including the National Retail Federation, have criticized the proposed deal as insufficient.
Looking ahead, Mastercard has continued its strategic expansion, recently announcing that Triple-A will leverage Mastercard Move for cross-border remittances. The company also completed the sale of its SessionM loyalty platform to Capillary Technologies for $20 million. Key executives from Visa and Mastercard are scheduled to speak at upcoming financial conferences in early March.
