Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold' is being challenged by a significant divergence in its correlation with the precious metal, according to analysis from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He asserts Bitcoin is currently in a "not digital gold" period, a conclusion drawn from observing that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has massively diverged over the past several months.
Historical data shows the correlation was mostly positive between 2022 and mid-2024. However, it turned negative for the first time in years during and after the U.S. presidential elections at the end of 2024, a period when BTC skyrocketed to new peaks while gold trailed behind. The correlation briefly recovered, jumping to and above 0.5 by the third and early fourth quarters of 2025, but then the crypto landscape broke.
The pivotal event was the market crash on October 10, 2025, which saw Bitcoin experience one of its most painful daily corrections, resulting in over $19 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. Since that crash, Bitcoin has been unable to recover, continuously declining in value to approximately $63,000 at press time—50% below its all-time high.
In stark contrast, gold tapped a new all-time high of $5,600 at the end of January 2026 and, despite a brief crash to $4,400, has largely traded at or above $5,000. Gold's price is now 30% above its October 10 level of $4,000, with a market capitalization exceeding $36.1 trillion, making it roughly 30 times larger than Bitcoin's market cap.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional equities, specifically the S&P 500, has also weakened significantly. Analysis indicates the correlation has recently eased into the mid-teens, far below stress-period highs. Deutsche Bank notes this is consistent with a weaker co-movement regime. Claims that this represents the "weakest correlation since the FTX collapse" or a "43% drop in 6 months" remain unverified due to a lack of specified calculation methods, but the softening trend is evident.
This weaker correlation with equities may temporarily improve Bitcoin's diversification potential within multi-asset portfolios. However, experts caution that correlations are regime-dependent and often spike during risk-off events. The landscape is further complicated by institutional integration via ETFs and futures, which have reshaped correlation behavior since 2020, and by the evolving business models of Bitcoin miners pivoting toward AI, creating a schism between BTC's price and miner stock performance.
